Budget 2026: what is confirmed, ruled out and still in play

What has already been announced? 

Several measures were confirmed before the Budget and do not depend on what the Chancellor says on the day: 

• VAT has been removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October 2026; 
• Pubs, clubs and live music venues in England will receive a 20% cut in business rates from April 2027; 
• The £2 cap on bus fares has been restored; and 
• Rules banning misleading ‘pretend prices’ and making subscriptions easier to cancel will apply from January 2027. 

What has the Government committed not to change? 

The Prime Minister has committed to keeping the main rate of Corporation Tax at 25%, along with full expensing and the Annual Investment Allowance, so businesses planning capital investment can proceed without expecting a change to the relief available. 

The Government’s commitments on the rates of Income Tax, VAT and employee National Insurance Contributions (NICs) also remain in place. Income Tax and National Insurance thresholds were frozen until April 2031 at the November 2025 Budget, which means more of any pay rise will continue to be taxed at higher rates. Sweeping changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax have been ruled out, with no immediate changes planned to stamp duty or council tax. 

What is likely to feature in the Budget? 

The following have been signalled by the Government or are already in progress, so the Budget is more likely to confirm their detail than to decide whether they happen: 

• Business rates reform, including changes to Small Business Rate Relief; 
• Further detail on the High Value Council Tax Surcharge (Mansion Tax), due from April 2028 on homes in England worth £2m or more, although a lower £1.5m threshold now looks less likely; 
• Confirmation of the Your First Home scheme, which reports suggest would combine a 2.5% deposit with a government-backed equity loan of up to 20%; and 
• The Government’s response to consultations on the VAT treatment of land for social housing and on Land Remediation Relief, both of which affect developers. 

Should you act on Capital Gains Tax before 28 October? 

Capital Gains Tax applies when you sell shares, a business, investment property or other assets at a gain. It sits outside the Government’s commitments on Income Tax, VAT and employee NICs, which makes it the most likely target. Rates are currently 18% and 24%, with Business Asset Disposal Relief at 18%, and when rates last rose in October 2024 the change applied from Budget day. 

Any move to fully align Capital Gains Tax rates to Income Tax rates without reinstating Indexation Relief to stop tax applying to purely inflationary gains would be very controversial and appears unlikely. But at the same time, bringing back Indexation Relief would wipe out much of the fiscal benefit for the Chancellor. So, it appears that any changes to the Capital Gains Tax regime will probably be more targeted.

Whatever the asset, a sale usually takes place for tax purposes when a binding contract is signed rather than when the deal completes and the money changes hands, so owners are asking whether signing before 28 October would secure today’s rates. It may not: a contract with conditions attached, such as regulatory approval or funding, only counts once every condition is met, and when the Business Asset Disposal Relief rate rose, anti-forestalling rules taxed most contracts completing after the change at the new rate. 

We would not recommend accelerating a sale on speculation alone, as a rushed deal can cost more than any tax that might be saved. If you are already close to signing, check whether your contract is conditional and model the tax at current and higher rates before Budget day.