Till to table: The Retail & Hospitality rundown
Expert insight into the key developments shaping the UK's retail and hospitality sectors
This rolling article provides updates on key developments affecting the retail and hospitality sectors and their financial impact. At Price Bailey, we aim to keep you informed with timely insight and practical analysis, but given how fast conditions can change, some updates may be delayed and the content should be treated as general commentary rather than advice.
The briefing will look at recent events, changes to come, and other announcements that could affect your costs, margins and growth plans. Each update focuses on implications for owners, operators and finance teams, and will include practical advice from our experts, which you can take into the coming months.
If you have questions about any of the topics covered, or would like tailored guidance for your business, please get in touch with our sector specialists. Our retail partner is Adam Norman and our hospitality partner is Emma Benjamin. You can contact them or the wider team using the contact form below.
Autumn Budget 2026 brings mixed news for retail & hospitality (Update 28 October 2026)
Chancellor John Healey delivered his first Budget on 28 October 2026 and the Government published its “Hope on the High Street” strategy alongside it.
For both sectors, however, the outcome will be mixed depending on the size of the business. Smaller cafés and venues gain meaningful business rates relief, but most operators face higher wage bills, no VAT relief and a less generous position when they come to sell.
What helps operators
The biggest win for retail and hospitality is around business rates. From April 2027, qualifying retail, hospitality and leisure properties in England with a rateable value up to £18,000 will receive 100% Small Business Rates Relief, up from £12,000. Tapered relief will also extend to £21,000, up from £15,000.
The Government expects this to take around 70,000 more high street businesses out of business rates, and says half of all retail, hospitality and leisure properties in England will pay no rates at all. For a small café or independent shop, that could remove a fixed cost entirely.
Businesses which still pay rates will see their bills frozen in real terms in 2027-28 and 2028-29. Pubs, social clubs and all but the largest live music venues will receive the extra 20% relief announced in July, bringing their total relief to 35% from 1 April 2027.
UK brewers will also benefit. The Chancellor announced £10m of alcohol duty relief for around 2,000 small British brewers and cider makers. The Government is also launching a £10m Hospitality Grant Scheme to support innovation, productivity and skills. It will extend the maximum term for pavement licences and review how pubs and hotels are valued for business rates.
Small independents gain the most, provided they qualify. The new rates threshold, the 35% pubs relief, the real-terms freeze, the brewers’ duty relief and the £10m Hospitality Grant Scheme are all aimed at smaller operators. Small Business Rates Relief generally applies where a business occupies one property, so independents trading from several sites should check their eligibility.
What hurts operators
The National Living Wage will rise by 3.9% to £13.21 an hour from 1 April 2027. For a labour-intensive sector, this is likely to outweigh the rates saving for most businesses, particularly larger venues and multi-site groups which sit well above the new rates threshold.
The sector had hoped for a cut to VAT on hospitality, which did not come. Owners planning an exit also face a less favourable position. The lifetime limit for Business Asset Disposal Relief will halve from £1m to £500,000, meaning a higher Capital Gains Tax bill on a sale for owners with larger gains.
The BADR limit falls to £500,000 for disposals from 6 April 2027, so owners planning a sale should review their timing. A new Founders’ Relief offers a 10% rate on gains up to £10m, but its conditions are not yet published and may favour investor-backed companies over long-established family firms.
Emma Benjamin, Hospitality Partner at Price Bailey, shares her view on what the Budget means for operators.
“This Budget is a real tale of two halves for hospitality. Raising the business rates threshold to £18,000 is welcome and will make a genuine difference to small cafés and independent venues, some of which will now pay no rates at all. The relief for small brewers is also a positive step.However, for most operators, the costs outweigh the gains. Another rise in the minimum wage, no reduction in VAT and a cut to Business Asset Disposal Relief for owners hoping to sell all add pressure on a sector which is already stretched. On balance, I don’t think this Budget does much to help hospitality.”
What should operators do now?
- Check the rateable value of each site on the GOV.UK business rates valuation service to see whether it falls within the new threshold or the taper.
- Model your 2027-28 wage bill, including the effect on pay differentials above the National Living Wage.
- Review pricing, menus and rotas before April, rather than absorbing the full increase.
- If you are considering a sale, take advice early on how the BADR change affects the timing and structure of your exit.
Our team is monitoring developments and will share further guidance as more detail becomes available. For any other Retail & Hospitality enquiries, contact our experts using the form below.
28 September 2026: Andy Burnham announces £210m package to regenerate high streets
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced a £210m package to bring derelict high street buildings in England back into use as shared workspaces, cafes, health centres and community hubs.
The package, announced on 25 September, is made up of three components:
- A £125m Derelict Buildings Fund, supporting local authorities to convert vacant shopping centres, disused cinemas and other empty buildings.
- £65m to help communities rescue buildings and businesses at risk of closure, such as pubs and sports clubs.
- £20m split equally between High Street Rental Auctions, which let out properties vacant for 12 months or more, and a new Co-operative Development Programme.
The Government has confirmed the £210m comes from Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) funding already earmarked for high street support and regeneration. Most of it will flow through local authorities, mayors and community groups rather than directly to operators. A full high streets strategy is also due later this year.
For hospitality and retail businesses, the main benefit is likely to be footfall. Bringing empty units back into use gives people more reasons to visit town centres, which supports the cafes, pubs and shops around them. High Street Rental Auctions may also open up premises for operators looking to expand. The package does not, however, reduce operating costs, and the Government has separately confirmed plans to let mayors introduce an overnight visitor levy, which the hospitality sector has opposed.
Emma Benjamin, Hospitality Partner at Price Bailey, shares her view on what it could mean for operators.
“Following the business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues, the Prime Minister has now announced a £210m scheme to transform derelict buildings into community spaces such as cafes, health centres and hubs. This is potentially an exciting prospect for run-down high streets across England and could be a real step in the right direction in supporting local businesses.
However, it may be too little, too late for the many local businesses struggling with continued rising costs. It is also a case of one step forward and two steps back, given the Prime Minister’s support for a tourist tax, which could further hinder hospitality and leisure.”
Our team is monitoring developments and will share further guidance as more detail becomes available. For any other Retail & Hospitality enquiries, contact our experts using the form below.
23 July 2026: 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues
Andy Burnham has announced a 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues in England, taking effect from April 2027.
The package is expected to cost roughly £100 million annually and will be funded by reviewing reliefs for businesses judged not to contribute positively to local communities, alongside action on online marketplaces which do not meet their UK tax obligations.
For a sector which has spent several years absorbing higher energy costs, inflation, rising rates bills and successive increases in wage and employment costs, any reduction on fixed costs is welcome. Business rates are payable regardless of how a venue trades, which is precisely why they hit thin margins the hardest.
The detail, though, is where this will be decided. The announcement names pubs, clubs and live music venues. It does not mention restaurants, cafes, hotels or the wider hospitality businesses which face the same cost pressures. Eligibility criteria have not been published, and it is not yet clear how the measure will interact with the relief already in place for 2026-27.
Price Bailey’s Hospitality Partner, Emma Benjamin, shares her view on what it could mean for operators.
“It could represent a significant development for hospitality, but at this stage there is still a lack of detail around how it will work in practice. If the cut lands as intended and reaches the businesses it is aimed at, it seems Andy Burnham could be the champion of hospitality the sector has been waiting for, but that is a considerable if.
Delivered in full, the cut would reduce a fixed cost for businesses which have spent several years absorbing higher energy costs, inflation, rising rates bills and successive increases in wage and employment costs. For operators running on thin margins, relief on a cost payable regardless of trade is meaningful.
However, the final impact will depend on key details that have yet to be confirmed, particularly which businesses will qualify and how eligibility is assessed where an operator runs several sites.
For now, operators should keep a close eye on further announcements and be prepared to assess the implications once the Government publishes more detailed proposals.”
Our team is monitoring developments and will share more detailed guidance as the position becomes clear. For any other Retail & Hospitality enquiries, contact our experts using the form below.
13 May 2026: London tube strikes
Preparing for the next tube strikes: What London’s retail and hospitality operators should do now (Update 13 May 2026)
A dispute between the RMT union and Transport for London over a proposed four-day working week for tube drivers has resulted in three waves of industrial action over April (now passed), 19–22 May, and 16–19 June. For retail and hospitality operators in the capital, this presents a sustained revenue and cash flow challenge running across the period, and only a short window of time to prepare for the next wave.
April: What the first wave showed
The April strikes ran across four working days, suspending all Underground lines and causing significant overcrowding on the Elizabeth line, DLR and Overground. According to UKHospitality data, they cost the retail and hospitality sectors an estimated total of up to £600m. Commuter demand has already decreased with the rise of hybrid working; these tube strikes worsen the situation by reducing the remaining footfall, thereby generating a significant decline in revenue across both daytime and evening trade.
With no available government compensation, no insurance product to cover industrial action, and no grounds to seek rent reductions, retail and hospitality businesses will continue to be negatively affected by this, alongside carrying higher employer NIC and National Living Wage costs, and facing the impacts of inflation from the US-Iran war.
May: The preparation window is now
The next strikes begin on 19 May, we recommend that operators take the following steps to prepare:
- Review cash flow now: Identify which payment obligations, such as PAYE, VAT, or supplier invoices, fall in or around the strike window. If April’s shortfall is feeding into May’s commitments, address that before the deadline, not after.
- Adjust stock orders: Most suppliers require 48-72 hours’ notice. Cutting back perishable orders ahead of confirmed strike days is significantly cheaper than writing off wastage again.
- Check your staffing position: Rota changes on strike days carry employment law implications. Take advice before assuming flexibility that may not exist in your contracts.
- Contact HMRC early if needed: Time to Pay arrangements for VAT debts up to £100,000 can be set up online. Larger debts and Corporation Tax liabilities require direct negotiation, but HMRC is far more responsive before a deadline than after one.
June: Why acting now matters more than it appears
If all three strikes go ahead, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates the total cost to the UK economy at between £390m and £760m. June falls during a commercially important period for many London operators, particularly those which are dependent on outdoor trade, tourist footfall and summer events.
Businesses entering that month without having adjusted their cost base or rebuilt any working capital buffer after April and May will have significantly less room to absorb it. The time to review supplier terms, stress-test Q2 cash flow and speak to an adviser is now.
Adam Norman, our Retail Partner, and Emma Benjamin, our Hospitality Partner, are advising clients across both sectors on planning through this period. Commenting on the situation, Adam stated:
“With ongoing tube strikes, rising employer costs, and sustained inflation pressures, London’s retail sector faces a perfect storm. Now more than ever, operators must act swiftly to protect cash flow and rethink their business models. The months ahead will test the resilience and adaptability of every business trading in the capital.”
If you have questions about any of the issues covered in this update, or would like tailored guidance for your business, please get in touch with one of our experts using the contact form below.
18 March 2026: Iran conflict & oil supply disruption
Iran conflict and oil supply disruption: Risks for retail and hospitality businesses (Update 18 March 2026)
Following the conflict in Iran, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for international oil and gas transportation, has effectively halted, triggering a global oil crisis. As a result, barrel prices have soared, with Brent Crude oil now trading at around $105-110 per barrel, an increase of over 50% over the course of a month.
This sharp new energy shock is already impacting the UK economy across multiple sectors: GDP growth has stagnated, inflation, previously projected to decline, is now expected to remain elevated as energy and fuel costs rise. Additionally, the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain current interest rates amid concerns that escalating oil prices will further raise the cost of living.
How will this impact retail and hospitality businesses?
Heightened operating costs
- Energy bills may remain elevated for longer.
- Retail supply chains will see stock availability and working capital disrupted as a direct result of vessels forced to reroute.
- Transport and delivery will become more expensive as fuel costs rise, feeding through into supplier delivery charges and surcharges.
Rising input and food prices
- Rising energy and fertiliser expenses will drive up farming and manufacturing costs, which will then be reflected in wholesale prices for essential food and grocery items.
- Retailers and venues will face more volatility in availability and pricing, especially on fresh and imported products.
Pressure on margins and viability
- Many operators may have to choose between raising prices, shrinking portions, or cutting promotions to protect margins.
- Lower household disposable income will likely reduce retail and hospitality spending and revenue.
Tougher trading and investment decisions
- With inflation risks heightened and rate cuts delayed, debt costs will stay higher for longer and demand remains fragile.
- Businesses may become more cautious about refurbishments, new sites and any major investments, and choose to refocus on efficiency, energy saving and cost control.
What can businesses do for now?
While businesses can’t control global events or markets, they can take clear, practical steps to understand exposure and protect margins. Below are some immediate actions retail and hospitality businesses can take now, to build resilience rather than simply reacting to the next headline.
- Get a clear picture: Create a list of energy contracts by site, including tariff, end date, fixed vs variable. Identify which supplier contracts include fuel and delivery surcharges and how often they’re reviewed.
- Stress-test your numbers: Run some “what if” scenarios on higher energy and input costs to see which sites, formats or categories are most exposed.
- Talk to suppliers now: Open early conversations about pricing, surcharges and delivery patterns so you have options rather than ultimatums.
- Cut obvious waste first: Agree on some quick and logical energy-saving steps and give managers a small number of KPIs to track.
- Focus on profitable lines: Review pricing, menus and ranges with an accountant to prioritise stronger-margin items and remove persistent under-performers.
- Bring in specialist support: Ask your accountants or advisers to review your numbers and plans with you, turn them into an action plan, and support key discussions with suppliers, landlords or lenders.
Commenting on the situation, Emma Benjamin, Hospitality Partner, stated,
“The current oil shock will affect the retail and hospitality sectors more quickly than other crises, by raising costs for energy, food, and logistics, while also limiting how much consumers are able to spend. Businesses face a major risk not just from rising costs, but also from ongoing instability that squeezes profit margins and complicates pricing, cash flow, and demand predictions. Most retail and hospitality companies will ultimately have to decide whether to push prices up or to absorb the extra costs.”
Emma Benjamin, Hospitality Partner
We always recommend that you seek advice from a suitably qualified adviser before taking any action. The information on this page is intended as a general guide only. While we work to keep our content accurate and up to date, we cannot guarantee that it reflects the position at the time you are reading it. No responsibility for loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as a result of this material can be accepted by the authors or the firm. For more information on our editorial process, click here.
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