Till to table: The Retail & Hospitality rundown

Expert insight into the key developments shaping the UK's retail and hospitality sectors

Retail and Hospitality

This rolling article provides updates on key developments affecting the retail and hospitality sectors and their financial impact. At Price Bailey, we aim to keep you informed with timely insight and practical analysis, but given how fast conditions can change, some updates may be delayed and the content should be treated as general commentary rather than advice.

The briefing will look at recent events, changes to come, and other announcements that could affect your costs, margins and growth plans. Each update focuses on implications for owners, operators and finance teams, and will include practical advice from our experts, which you can take into the coming months.

If you have questions about any of the topics covered, or would like tailored guidance for your business, please get in touch with our sector specialists. Our retail partner is Adam Norman and our hospitality partner is Emma Benjamin. You can contact them or the wider team using the contact form below.

Preparing for the next tube strikes: What London’s retail and hospitality operators should do now (Update 13 May 2026)

A dispute between the RMT union and Transport for London over a proposed four-day working week for tube drivers has resulted in three waves of industrial action over April (now passed), 19–22 May, and 16–19 June. For retail and hospitality operators in the capital, this presents a sustained revenue and cash flow challenge running across the period, and only a short window of time to prepare for the next wave.

April: What the first wave showed

The April strikes ran across four working days, suspending all Underground lines and causing significant overcrowding on the Elizabeth line, DLR and Overground. According to UKHospitality data, they cost the retail and hospitality sectors an estimated total of up to £600m. Commuter demand has already decreased with the rise of hybrid working; these tube strikes worsen the situation by reducing the remaining footfall, thereby generating a significant decline in revenue across both daytime and evening trade.

With no available government compensation, no insurance product to cover industrial action, and no grounds to seek rent reductions, retail and hospitality businesses will continue to be negatively affected by this, alongside carrying higher employer NIC and National Living Wage costs, and facing the impacts of inflation from the US-Iran war.

May: The preparation window is now

The next strikes begin on 19 May, we recommend that operators take the following steps to prepare:

Review cash flow now: Identify which payment obligations, such as PAYE, VAT, or supplier invoices, fall in or around the strike window. If April’s shortfall is feeding into May’s commitments, address that before the deadline, not after.
Adjust stock orders: Most suppliers require 48-72 hours’ notice. Cutting back perishable orders ahead of confirmed strike days is significantly cheaper than writing off wastage again.
Check your staffing position: Rota changes on strike days carry employment law implications. Take advice before assuming flexibility that may not exist in your contracts.
Contact HMRC early if needed: Time to Pay arrangements for VAT debts up to £100,000 can be set up online. Larger debts and Corporation Tax liabilities require direct negotiation, but HMRC is far more responsive before a deadline than after one.

June: Why acting now matters more than it appears

If all three strikes go ahead, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates the total cost to the UK economy at between £390m and £760m. June falls during a commercially important period for many London operators, particularly those which are dependent on outdoor trade, tourist footfall and summer events.

Businesses entering that month without having adjusted their cost base or rebuilt any working capital buffer after April and May will have significantly less room to absorb it. The time to review supplier terms, stress-test Q2 cash flow and speak to an adviser is now.

Adam Norman, our Retail Partner, and Emma Benjamin, our Hospitality Partner, are advising clients across both sectors on planning through this period. Commenting on the situation, Adam stated:

“With ongoing tube strikes, rising employer costs, and sustained inflation pressures, London’s retail sector faces a perfect storm. Now more than ever, operators must act swiftly to protect cash flow and rethink their business models. The months ahead will test the resilience and adaptability of every business trading in the capital.”

If you have questions about any of the issues covered in this update, or would like tailored guidance for your business, please get in touch with one of our experts using the contact form below.

18 March 2026: Iran conflict & oil supply disruption

Iran conflict and oil supply disruption: Risks for retail and hospitality businesses (Update 18 March 2026)

Following the conflict in Iran, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for international oil and gas transportation, has effectively halted, triggering a global oil crisis. As a result, barrel prices have soared, with Brent Crude oil now trading at around $105-110 per barrel, an increase of over 50% over the course of a month.

This sharp new energy shock is already impacting the UK economy across multiple sectors: GDP growth has stagnated, inflation, previously projected to decline, is now expected to remain elevated as energy and fuel costs rise. Additionally, the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain current interest rates amid concerns that escalating oil prices will further raise the cost of living.

How will this impact retail and hospitality businesses?

Heightened operating costs

Energy bills may remain elevated for longer.
Retail supply chains will see stock availability and working capital disrupted as a direct result of vessels forced to reroute.
Transport and delivery will become more expensive as fuel costs rise, feeding through into supplier delivery charges and surcharges.

Rising input and food prices

Rising energy and fertiliser expenses will drive up farming and manufacturing costs, which will then be reflected in wholesale prices for essential food and grocery items.
Retailers and venues will face more volatility in availability and pricing, especially on fresh and imported products.

Pressure on margins and viability

Many operators may have to choose between raising prices, shrinking portions, or cutting promotions to protect margins.
Lower household disposable income will likely reduce retail and hospitality spending and revenue.

Tougher trading and investment decisions

With inflation risks heightened and rate cuts delayed, debt costs will stay higher for longer and demand remains fragile.
Businesses may become more cautious about refurbishments, new sites and any major investments, and choose to refocus on efficiency, energy saving and cost control.

What can businesses do for now?

While businesses can’t control global events or markets, they can take clear, practical steps to understand exposure and protect margins. Below are some immediate actions retail and hospitality businesses can take now, to build resilience rather than simply reacting to the next headline.

Get a clear picture: Create a list of energy contracts by site, including tariff, end date, fixed vs variable. Identify which supplier contracts include fuel and delivery surcharges and how often they’re reviewed.
Stress-test your numbers: Run some “what if” scenarios on higher energy and input costs to see which sites, formats or categories are most exposed.
Talk to suppliers now: Open early conversations about pricing, surcharges and delivery patterns so you have options rather than ultimatums.
Cut obvious waste first: Agree on some quick and logical energy-saving steps and give managers a small number of KPIs to track.
Focus on profitable lines: Review pricing, menus and ranges with an accountant to prioritise stronger-margin items and remove persistent under-performers.
Bring in specialist support: Ask your accountants or advisers to review your numbers and plans with you, turn them into an action plan, and support key discussions with suppliers, landlords or lenders.

Commenting on the situation, Emma Benjamin, Hospitality Partner, stated,

“The current oil shock will affect the retail and hospitality sectors more quickly than other crises, by raising costs for energy, food, and logistics, while also limiting how much consumers are able to spend. Businesses face a major risk not just from rising costs, but also from ongoing instability that squeezes profit margins and complicates pricing, cash flow, and demand predictions. Most retail and hospitality companies will ultimately have to decide whether to push prices up or to absorb the extra costs.”

Emma Benjamin, Hospitality Partner

We always recommend that you seek advice from a suitably qualified adviser before taking any action. The information in this article only serves as a guide and no responsibility for loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as a result of this material can be accepted by the authors or the firm.

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